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Florence, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Florence AZ
National Weather Service Forecast for: Florence AZ
Issued by: National Weather Service Phoenix, AZ
Updated: 12:40 am MST Jun 28, 2025
 
Overnight

Overnight: Clear, with a low around 78. South wind around 5 mph.
Clear

Saturday

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 106. Light and variable wind becoming west northwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Sunny

Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 79. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southeast after midnight.
Mostly Clear

Sunday

Sunday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 111. Light and variable wind becoming west northwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Hot

Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 80. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast after midnight.
Mostly Clear

Monday

Monday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 112. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon.
Hot

Monday
Night
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 84. East wind around 10 mph.
Mostly Clear

Tuesday

Tuesday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 110. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southwest in the afternoon.
Hot

Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 81. East wind 5 to 10 mph.
Slight Chance
T-storms then
Partly Cloudy
Lo 78 °F Hi 106 °F Lo 79 °F Hi 111 °F Lo 80 °F Hi 112 °F Lo 84 °F Hi 110 °F Lo 81 °F

Extreme Heat Warning
 

Overnight
 
Clear, with a low around 78. South wind around 5 mph.
Saturday
 
Sunny, with a high near 106. Light and variable wind becoming west northwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Saturday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 79. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southeast after midnight.
Sunday
 
Sunny and hot, with a high near 111. Light and variable wind becoming west northwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 80. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast after midnight.
Monday
 
Sunny and hot, with a high near 112. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon.
Monday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 84. East wind around 10 mph.
Tuesday
 
Sunny and hot, with a high near 110. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southwest in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 81. East wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 105. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 80. South wind 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday
 
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 98. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming southeast after midnight.
Independence Day
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 98. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Florence AZ.

Weather Forecast Discussion
015
FXUS65 KPSR 280947
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
247 AM MST Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry conditions are expected into early next week with
  lower desert high temperatures topping out mostly between 110
  and 115 degrees for Sunday through Tuesday

- Extreme Heat Warnings have been issued for the Phoenix metro
  Sunday through Tuesday with the rest of lower deserts in effect
  only for Monday as areas of Major HeatRisk develop

- An increase in moisture by the middle of next week is likely to
  lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms for portions of
  Arizona, favored more across higher terrain areas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The sub-tropical ridge has begun to recenter itself directly over
the Desert Southwest with H5 heights now around 590-591dm. The
increasing heights aloft since Thursday will continue to help
temperatures to heat up this weekend with readings already
expected to top out around 110 degrees today. The ridge should
strengthen a bit further Sunday into Monday peaking at 591-593dm,
but still below the 90th percentile of climatology. Forecast
temperatures during the peak strength of the ridge have trended
upward over the past few model runs with Sunday now showing
111-114 degrees and Monday at 112-116 degrees. Temperatures are
likely to begin to lower starting Tuesday, but only by a degree or
two as a dry Pacific low approaches the region from the west. Due
to the even hotter trends within the models, the areas of Major
HeatRisk have expanded, particularly on Monday which now show at
least localized Major HeatRisk throughout all of the lower
deserts. As a result, we have decided to expand the Extreme Heat
Warning westward through southwest Arizona and much of southeast
California. Daily record highs are mostly out of reach, but the
115 degree record on Monday for Phoenix is very likely (~80%) to
at least be tied and/or broken (~50%).

The Pacific low that will approach our region early next week is
set to begin taking shape west of southern California already by
tonight into Sunday. Guidance has struggled with this weather
feature, but now seems to agree it will have a greater influence
on our weather by Tuesday and Wednesday. The positioning of the
low just to our west and the high center shifting more to our
northeast over the Four Corners area should allow for a modest
southeasterly moist flow into at least southeast Arizona by
Tuesday. Moisture should increase enough for some isolated showers
or a few thunderstorms across the eastern Arizona higher terrain
as early as Tuesday afternoon, but more likely by Wednesday.
Either or both of those days should only result in rain chances
over the higher terrain, but it may be possible to direct storm
outflows into the south-central Arizona lower deserts. A south
southeast steering flow on Tuesday is somewhat favorable, but at
this moment storm coverage is not likely to be very high. By
Wednesday, storm coverage over southeast and eastern Arizona is
likely to increase, but the steering flow is likely to switch out
of the south southwest which is definitely less favorable for any
activity reaching the lower deserts.

Beyond Wednesday, guidance is even more murkier with each new
model run disagreeing on how much and how far west the moisture
will reach. Forecast confidence for any shower or thunderstorm
chances into the south-central Arizona lower deserts is still
fairly low for late next week as it will largely depend on the
available moisture and the positioning of expected jet forcing
from the trough situated just to our northwest. Any other
forcing from any potential subtle sub-tropical waves or mesoscale
features is still unknown at this time. The south southwesterly
steering flow (non-favorable for the lower deserts) will however
most likely stay in place through the rest of next week. The NBM
PoPs are still pointing at Thursday being the best day for more
widespread chances (30-40%) across south-central Arizona, but
even that is of low forecast confidence. There are several pieces
that will have to come together for our area (south-central
Arizona specifically) to have a active monsoon day later next
week, and right now we are uncertain whether it will turn out that
way. Of higher certainty is the cooler temperatures for the
latter half of next week as the trough should lower heights aloft
while lower level moisture increases. Forecast highs by Wednesday
should be closer to normal, before potentially dropping 3-5
degrees below normal by around Thursday. Ensembles then suggest
the trough will move further inland encompassing all or most of
our region by around next Saturday. If this scenario were to
occur, it would likely dry out much of our area leading a big
downtrend in any monsoon activity.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0600Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
Winds will continue to follow diurnal trends through Saturday,
with mostly clear skies. Wind speeds will be light through tonight
and tomorrow morning, with directions turning easterly by 9-13Z.
Confidence is good that an early westerly shift will occur
tomorrow, as early as 15-16Z. Winds increase up to 8-13 kts
tomorrow afternoon and evening with gusts up to 15-20 kts.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will favor a westerly component at KIPL tonight until
eventually shifting southeasterly by 12-13Z tomorrow morning.
Westerly sundowner winds will develop again tomorrow evening
around 00-01Z. Speeds through the TAF period will mostly remain at
or below 10 kts at KIPL. Winds will maintain a southerly component
at KBLH for most of the TAF period, with light speeds during the
night/morning and increases in the afternoon with gusts to around
20 kts. Lofted smoke/haze may at times lower slantwise visibility
during the late afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong high pressure over the region will push lower desert highs
to over 110 degrees by Sunday as overall hot and dry conditions
persist into early next week. Expect little change in humidity
trends through Monday as MinRH values continue to range between
5-15% each day and overnight recoveries stay between 20-35%.
Winds will follow familiar diurnal trends with typical afternoon
breeziness, gusting mainly between 15-20 mph. Eventually, the
weather pattern will become more favorable for increasing
moisture and at least some scattered high terrain showers and
thunderstorms by around next Tuesday and Wednesday. This may
initially result a day or two of dry lightning concerns before
moisture and rainfall chances increases later next week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Monday for
     AZZ530>536-538-539-541-545-547-549-552>555-559-560.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 8 PM MST Tuesday for
     AZZ537-540-542>544-546-548-550-551.

CA...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM PDT Monday for CAZ562-
     565>567-569-570.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Young/Kuhlman
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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